UPDATE American Idol Social Media Scorecard: Phillip’s Fan Surge Fallacy

Wednesday May 16th

It’s now eight hours after the publication of our last American Idol Social Media Scorecard noting a simply unreal surge of nearly 100k fans in just seven days, and we still can’t get over the jump. In fact, the jump is still so shocking that we super-sleuthed the data, our new theory is that Phillip had two seemingly “official” Facebook fan pages (both with fans in the tens of thousands) that have recently merged into one to create this mega leap in fan base for Phillip.

How did we come to this theory, you ask? Our models have been examining data generated from each contestant’s official Facebook fan page that is linked from AmericanIdol.com each week as one of our baseline metrics. However, a screenshot from the Rappler shows two very significant and highly similar fan pages. And there is more evidence –a little more looking revealed an interesting post by blogger Nicole Crimaldi also notes two Facebook fan pages, with a link leading to a now defunct Phillip Phillips fan page.

On the downside, this new information means that we have likely been underestimating the size of Phillip’s fan base when comparing it to others. However, on the upside, ZabaSearch Prediction Engine results prioritize changes in fan base at critical points during the week, especially pre- and post-performance, so the final verdict should be largely intact.

Oh the tangled web we weave which just leads us back to the point that this is anyone’s game!