American Idol Social Media Scorecard: Top 2 Battle for American Idol

Tuesday May 22nd

And the battle rages on in this final week of Season 11 as the remaining two contestants take the stage tonight to compete for the title of American Idol! Both contestants have consistently ranked at the top of fan polls throughout the season, and their fan counts echo their ever-growing popularity. In this week’s American Idol Social Media Scorecard, we take a look at the 6-day change from last week’s pre-performance tally to find that social media buzz surrounding 16 year-old Jessica Sanchez has picked up pace in this final week as she breaks away even further from every girl’s dream, Phillip Phillips, in Twitter, Facebook and combined fan count.

A closer examination of these platforms show the detail of the trends. Most interesting to note is that since last week, both contestants have seen an increase in fan growth rate as fans of previously eliminated contestants choose sides and as more viewers tune into the last two weeks of competition. Jessica’s fan base has grown at a faster rate than Phillip, by 25.8% in Twitter followers and 23.7% in Facebook likes to yield a total overall fan growth rate of 25.0%.  In comparison, Phillip’s fan base grew overall by 14.3% due, this comprised of a 13.7% growth in Twitter followers and a 15.4% growth in Facebook fans.  This week’s analysis is particularly interesting since last week’s data was inconsistent — Phillip’s Facebook likes grew by over 100,000 fans during the week, but that is hypothesized to be due to a possible merge of two Facebook fan pages.

However, even with this Facebook fan count snafu, Jessica’s total overall fan base still outnumbers Phillip’s, and that could easily be misinterpreted to signify that Jessica is a sure win. That, we know is not true at this point, if only because a significant part of Jessica’s fan base is international and since American Idol voting is limited to residents of the continental United States and its territories, who knows what effects this could have on the actual votes? (For more information, see The Case For and Against Jessica Sanchez as the Next American Idol and also The Case For and Against Phillip Phillips as the Next American Idol.)

While these fan counts are only a couple of the many variables that are fed each week into the ZabaSearch Prediction Engine to deliver the results, they are an indication of overall fan sentiment for each contestant, though not all of these fans will translate into votes. Predicting the outcome of American Idol involves predicting the behavior of millions of people and whether they will vote for Phillip, for Jessica, or not at all. It is not (yet) an exact science, but one that is improving with every round of song.

Check back with us on Wednesday morning for our final predictions for Season 11 of American Idol and who will take it all! (Predictions will be posted by noon, Pacific Time.) Until then,  be sure to join us on Facebook to share your predictions for the final showdown!

 

Contestant Twitter Followers
(1 week % change)
Facebook Likes
(1 week % change)
Total Fan Count
% Change in Total from Previous Week
Jessica Sanchez 409,024 (25.8%) 246,040 (23.7%) 655,064 25.0%
Phillip Phillips 319,533 (13.7%) 195,983 (15.4%) 515,516 14.3%