On Wednesday morning, hours and hours before the latest Idol voting results were announced, we gave our predictions for the bottom three contestants on American Idol. Based on trending popularity, quality of performance, and a host of other quantifiable factors, we predicted that Hollie Cavanagh, Elise Testone and Phillip Phillips would be in the bottom three, with Hollie being the most likely contestant to be sent home. Alas, our predictions went awry this week — the call on Elise was correct, but her bottom three-mates were completely and utterly wrong. High Zscoring contestants Joshua Ledet and an obvious crowd favorite, Jessica Sanchez also ended up at the bottom of the pile. Of course, to make matters worse, ZScore frontrunner Jessica was nearly sent home as well, but for the judges’ save.
So what went so extremely wrong with our predictions? You did, America, and we share your guilt because we all just got too lazy. American Idol is and always has been a contest that also involves a certain amount of random chance. While there are those of you out there who will agree with America’s decision to send Jessica home last night, the vast majority of you will agree that this girl has talent, and in a purely empirical world, she did not deserve to be the next one to be sent home last night and we agree with this view.
However, this is where our model diverges. We hypothesize that Jessica was in fact so good, that America just got lazy and failed to vote because, after all, she doesn’t need our help. (This phenomena, by the way, also likely played a part in Joshua Ledet’s nomination to the bottom three.) It is this complacent attitude that kicked in and ruined the day for little Jessica, and while we sit here and point our fingers at you, we also hang our heads low for having that same lackadaisical attitude that sunk Jessica’s ship last night. Just look at the comments we made while recapping her last performances — flinging around phrases such as “no surprises here,” and “Jennifer loves her and so on and so on”. It’s no wonder that we collectively presumed this girl had it made, and when we did, the votes failed to materialize.
That said, our prediction model did not take America’s failure to vote factor into consideration, but we are all to blame. America, please, please don’t screw this up again — no more sitting back and letting somebody else do the work. Let’s all do our job, and together we can get this done!