American Idol Predictions: Only the Not-So-Good Die Young

Thursday March 22nd

“If you can’t sing Billy Joel, you can’t sing at all,” said Judge Steven Tyler last night during performances of songs from this pop icon. So, who will it be that goes home tonight on American Idol?  We think we know the answer.  Based on a series of data that we’ve collected for each contestant, our top picks for the candidates most likely to land in the bottom three tonight are DeAndre Brackensick, Hollie Cavanagh, and Erika Van Pelt (with a side of Elise Testone – don’t worry, we’ll explain below). The contestant we believe is going home tonight is DeAndre Brackensick.

How did we reach our Zaba results, as we like to call them? Our predictions are based on a number of varying factors and influences, including Facebook likes and mentions, Twitter following and mentions, the number of ZabaSearch and Google searches performed, and the number of SEM impressions noted for each contestant. Roll these factors up into one final Zscore, and overlay it with a good bit of common sense and there you have our basis for predicting the bottom three contestants and the one who is the most likely to go home!

(**Read more about the ZabaSearch Prediction Engine and ZScore index values here.)

Undeservingly, Erika Van Pelt seems to consistently turn up in the bottom of the pile despite some plain ‘ol, good performances. Last night’s performance was no exception – Erika laid down a great rendition of New York State of Mind for the books, though she probably created a bigger stir with audiences with her edgy, new, Benatar-esque look. As Ryan Seacrest succinctly put it, “Not since the Sanjaya pony-hawk, have we seen such an Idol transformation on stage!”

Also likely on the hot seat, teen Hollie Cavanagh threw a pitchy-pitchy performance of Honesty at us, though she’s proven in the past that she has the chops to make it a little further. However, based on Zscore data, audience reaction to Hollie’s performance last night was meh (at best), and so we predict that this is enough to land good-golly-miss-Hollie in the bottom three tonight.

That leaves only Curlilocks to round out the bottom of the pile, and because his overall popularity and mediocre performance of Only the Good Die Young lands him squarely in the so-so range, DeAndre Brackensick is at high risk of being sent home tonight.

So what’s the kink in this scenario? Like her co-contestant Erika Van Pelt, our popularity analyses show Elise Testone turning up in the bottom three over Hollie Cavanagh, so if numbers don’t lie, this little scenario could very well play out instead of the one we’ve predicted below. However, if it does, we still don’ t think that Elise will be packing her bags and heading home tonight because the judges love Elise, and we predict that in this case, they would choose to save her instead.

The bottom line — ZabaSearch predicts:

The Bottom Three
Hollie Cavanagh
DeAndre Brackensick
Erika Van Pelt

The Wild Card
Elise Testone

Who’s Going Home
DeAndre Brackensick